2003 to 2017 NHL Drafts Top-10 redone

This Coronavirus is causing quite the commotion everywhere in the world, including in Canada and the United States. You can’t turn a TV Channel, listen to the radio or browse the internet without hearing about it… and that’s a good thing. Just recently, the NHL announced the postponement of the NHL Draft which was supposed to be held in Montreal this year. With local product Alexis Lafrenière ranked number one, it would have been a great venue for his to be named to a NHL team. The date and format are still up in the air at the time of writing this, as is the rest of the season and the playoffs.

But since the Draft seems to be the next big thing for hockey fans, let’s dig a bit into the last 14 years (not counting 2018 and 2019 as most draftees aren’t in the NHL yet). So from 2003 to 2017 inclusively, I have tallied the top-10 draft picks and decided to complete an exercise: re-rank the Drafts based on what we know today, on these players’ production so far in the league. Of course, this won’t take into consideration the team picking and their needs, as it’s strictly based on production.

Admittedly, this exercise is completely subjective and you might have a different opinion on the rankings, which is perfectly fine. To be truthful, I often hesitated between players myself when deciding of the order. But you will notice that while the rankings might differ in your opinion, the names mentioned should pretty much be the same.

2017

NJD Nico Hischier
PHI Nolan Patrick
DAL Miro Heiskanen
COL Cale Makar
VAN Elias Pettersson
VEG Cody Glass
NYR Lias Andersson
BUF Casey Mittelstadt
DET Michael Rasmussen
FLA Owen Tippett

Those were the selections. Below, the new rankings. In general, teams were quite accurate with their picks. There are a few players who were drafted just outside the top-10 but it’s not a big stretch. The sample size is very small though and if we did this exercise in 3 years, the results could very well be quite different.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Elias Pettersson	5	+4	139	55	77	132
2-	Cale Makar	4	+2	57	12	38	50
3-	Miro Heiskanen	3	—	150	20	48	68
4-	Nico Hischier	1	-3	209	51	84	135
5-	Nolan Patrick	2	-3	145	26	35	61
6-	Nick Suzuki	13	+7	71	13	28	41
7-	Robert Thomas	20	+13	136	19	56	75
8-	Filip Chytil	21	+13	144	26	23	49
9-	Kailer Yamamoto	22	+13	53	12	19	31
10-	Martin Necas	12	-2	72	17	21	38

2016

TOR Auston Matthews
WIN Patrik Laine
CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois
EDM Jesse Puljujarvi
VAN Olli Juolevi
CGY Matthew Tkachuk
ARI Clayton Keller
BUF Alexander Nylander
MTL Mikhail Sergachev
COL Tyson Jost

This draft had more than a few teams missing out on some very good players who were selected much later. Alex DeBrincat, Jesper Bratt and Adam Fox made the biggest jumps amongst the picks that year.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Auston Matthews	1	—	282	158	127	285
2-	Matthew Tkachuk	6	+4	293	94	141	235
3-	Patrik Laine	2	-1	305	138	109	247
4-	Mikhail Sergachev	9	+5	227	25	81	106
5-	Alex DeBrincat	39	+34	234	87	86	173
6-	Pierre-Luc Dubois	3	-3	234	65	93	158
7-	Clayton Keller	7	—	237	54	104	158
8-	Charlie McAvoy	14	+6	184	19	73	92
9-	Jesper Bratt	162	+153	185	37	63	100
10-	Adam Fox	66	+56	70	8	34	42

2015

EDM Connor McDavid
BUF Jack Eichel
ARI Dylan Strome
TOR Mitch Marner
CAR Noah Hanifin
NJD Pavel Zacha
PHI Ivan Provorov
CBJ Zach Werenski
SJS Timo Meir
COL Mikko Rantanen

This is about average. The top-2 were pretty much guaranteed no matter what team was selecting at those position. Sebastian Aho made the biggest jump.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Connor McDavid	1	—	251	162	307	469
2-	Jack Eichel	2	—	354	137	200	337
3-	Mitch Marner	4	+1	300	83	208	291
4-	Sebastian Aho	35	+31	310	121	142	263
5-	Mikko Rantanen	10	+5	281	99	151	250
6-	Zach Werenski	8	+2	300	58	111	169
7-	Mathew Barzal	16	+9	234	59	148	207
8-	Kyle Connor	17	+9	249	105	96	201
9-	Brock Boeser	23	+14	197	75	86	161
10-	Ivan Provorov	7	-3	315	43	90	133

2014

FLA Aaron Ekblad
BUF Sam Reinhart
EDM Leon Draisaitl
CGY Sam Bennett
NYI Michael Dal Colle
VAN Jake Virtanen
CAR Haydn Fleury
TOR William Nylander
WIN Nikolaj Ehlers
ANA Nick Ritchie

Look at all the teams who passed on David Pastrnak! And what about Brayden Point? Viktor Arvidsson at 112th overall was a steal.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Leon Draisaitl	3	+2	422	168	254	422
2-	David Pastrnak	25	+23	390	180	199	379
3-	Brayden Point	79	+76	295	116	146	262
4-	Dylan Larkin	15	+11	389	107	159	266
5-	Nikolaj Ehlers	9	+4	369	115	142	257
6-	William Nylander	8	+2	307	86	135	221
7-	Viktor Arvidsson	112	+105	335	117	97	214
8-	Sam Reinhart	2	-6	400	109	146	255
9-	Aaron Ekblad	1	-8	458	71	141	212
10-	Nick Schmaltz	20	+10	249	45	105	150

2013

COL Nathan MacKinnon
FLA Aleksander Barkov
TBL Jonathan Drouin
NAS Seth Jones
CAR Elias Lindholm
CGY Sean Monahan
EDM Darnell Nurse
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen
VAN Bo Horvat
DAL Valeri Nichushkin

Teams pretty much nailed this draft in the top-10. The only one who was a late first round who moved to the select list is defenseman Shea Theodore.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Nathan MacKinnon	1	—	525	190	305	495
2-	Aleksander Barkov	2	—	479	155	252	407
3-	Sean Monahan	6	+3	541	194	217	411
4-	Seth Jones	4	—	524	60	198	258
5-	Elias Lindholm	5	—	525	120	200	320
6-	Bo Horvat	9	+3	446	120	155	275
7-	Rasmus Ristolainen	8	+1	493	42	185	227
8-	Max Domi	12	+4	375	81	170	251
9-	Shea Theodore	26	+17	264	36	93	129
10-	Jonathan Drouin	3	-7	349	67	142	209

2012

EDM Nail Yakupov
CBJ Ryan Murray
MTL Alex Galchenyuk
NYI Griffin Reinhart
TOR Morgan Rielly
ANA Hampus Lindholm
MIN Matt Dumba
PIT Derrick Pouliot
WIN Jacob Trouba
TBL Slater Koekkoek

One of the weakest Draft during this time span, the depth was non-existent. I hesitated to put Alex Galchenyuk this high simply because he’s been traded three times and his future in the NHL doesn’t seem to be that secure. But statistically speaking, he belongs… due to the weak Draft. How many teams would take Colton Parayko today?

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Filip Forsberg	11	+10	458	166	187	353
2-	Morgan Rielly	5	+3	517	54	216	270
3-	Teuvo Teravainen	18	+15	428	91	198	289
4-	Tomas Hertl	17	+13	453	132	148	280
5-	Alex Galchenyuk	3	-2	549	135	185	320
6-	Jacob Trouba	9	+3	478	49	157	206
7-	Hampus Lindholm	6	-1	502	50	144	194
8-	Tanner Pearson	30	+22	457	108	107	215
9-	Matt Dumba	7	-2	411	62	112	174
10-	Colton Parayko	86	+76	386	39	120	159

2011

EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
COL Gabriel Landeskog
FLA Jonathan Huberdeau
NJD Adam Larsson
NYI Ryan Strome
OTT Mika Zibanejad
WIN Mark Scheifele
PHI Sean Couturier
BOS Dougie Hamilton
MIN Jonas Brodin

This one is incredible. 57 times, teams have passed on Nikita Kucherov and 103 times, they passed on Johnny Gaudreau! Can you believe this? So you can’t blame one team’s scouts more than another. Ondrej Palat made the biggest jump.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Nikita Kucherov	58	+57	515	221	326	547
2-	Johnny Gaudreau	104	+102	464	151	294	445
3-	Mark Scheifele	7	+4	519	180	264	444
4-	Gabriel Landeskog	2	-2	633	198	262	460
5-	Jonathan Huberdeau	3	-2	536	148	289	437
6-	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	1	-5	604	169	274	443
7-	Sean Couturier	8	+1	647	156	246	402
8-	Mika Zibanejad	6	-2	548	176	208	384
9-	Ondrej Palat	208	+199	496	110	218	328
10-	Dougie Hamilton	9	-1	552	96	203	299

2010

EDM Taylor Hall
BOS Tyler Seguin
FLA Erik Gudbranson
CBJ Ryan Johansen
NYI Nino Niederreiter
TBL Brett Connolly
CAR Jeff Skinner
ATL Alexander Burmistrov
MIN Mikael Granlund
NYR Dylan McIlrath

This Draft is summed up to two names: Mark Stone and John Klingberg. St. Louis picking Vladimir Tarasenko at the 16th spot was a good one too.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Taylor Hall	1	—	627	218	345	563
2-	Tyler Seguin	2	—	741	279	356	635
3-	Jeff Skinner	7	+4	720	258	207	465
4-	Vladimir Tarasenko	16	+12	507	214	214	428
5-	Ryan Johansen	4	-1	660	144	298	442
6-	Mark Stone	178	+172	449	149	236	385
7-	Yevgeni Kuznetsov	26	+19	479	120	269	389
8-	Jaden Schwartz	14	+6	520	146	218	364
9-	John Klingberg	131	+122	425	58	233	291
10-	Cam Fowler	12	+2	679	67	234	301

2009

NYI John Tavares
TBL Victor Hedman
COL Matt Duchene
ATL Evander Kane
LAK Brayden Schenn
PHO Oliver Ekman-Larsson
TOR Nazem Kadri
DAL Scott Glennie
OTT Jared Cowen
EDM Magnus Paajarvi

People would put Tavares first and I wouldn’t argue. It was close then between Hedman and Tavares, and it’s still a close call today. I don’t think neither the Islanders nor the Lightning are complaining with their pick. But Ryan O’Reilly jumped from 33rd to 4th on my list.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Victor Hedman	2	+1	762	105	368	473
2-	John Tavares	1	-1	814	345	424	769
3-	Matt Duchene	3	—	793	245	344	589
4-	Ryan O’Reilly	33	+29	804	195	365	560
5-	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	6	+1	723	125	239	364
6-	Nick Leddy	16	+10	720	63	242	305
7-	Evander Kane	4	-3	713	242	215	457
8-	Brayden Schenn	5	-3	658	179	251	430
9-	Nazem Kadri	7	-2	612	180	213	393
10-	Marcus Johansson	24	+14	648	129	235	364

2008

TBL Steven Stamkos
LAK Drew Doughty
ATL Zach Bogosian
STL Alex Pietrangelo
TOR Luke Schenn
CBJ Nikita Filatov
NAS Colin Wilson
PHO Mikkel Boedker
NYI Josh Bailey
VAN Cody Hodgson

The year of the defensemen. Look at the quality in there! All but Alex Pietrangelo were picked at least 10 ranks later where I have them today.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Steven Stamkos	1	—	803	422	410	832
2-	Drew Doughty	2	—	919	117	385	502
3-	Alex Pietrangelo	4	+1	758	109	341	450
4-	Erik Karlsson	15	+11	736	135	468	603
5-	John Carlson	27	+22	757	105	373	478
6-	Roman Josi	38	+31	632	109	304	413
7-	Jordan Eberle	22	+15	724	225	293	518
8-	Derek Stephan	51	+44	739	167	312	479
9-	Josh Bailey	9	+2	885	154	322	476
10-	Adam Henrique	82	+72	665	186	192	378

2007

CHI Patrick Kane
PHI James van Riemsdyk
PHO Kyle Turris
LAK Thomas Hickey
WAS Karl Alzner
EDM Sam Gagner
CBJ Jakub Voracek
BOS Zach Hamill
SJS Logan Couture
FLA Keaton Ellerby

How many teams were kicking themselves for passing on Jamie Benn and Wayne Simmonds? As for P.K. Subban, scouts knew that the talent was there but there were many questions about how coachable he was, which dropped him to the second round… something that has plagued his career in the NHL so far.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN
1-	Patrick Kane	1	—
2-	Jakub Voracek	7	+5
3-	Jamie Benn	129	+126
4-	Max Pacioretty	22	+18
5-	Ryan McDonagh	12	+7
6-	Wayne Simmonds	61	+55
7-	P.K. Subban	43	+36
8-	Logan Couture	9	+1
9-	David Perron	26	+17
10-	Kevin Shattenkirk	14	+4

2006

STL Erik Johnson
PIT Jordan Staal
CHI Jonathan Toews
WAS Nicklas Backstrom
BOS Phil Kessel
CBJ Derrick Brassard
NYI Kyle Okposo
PHO Peter Mueller
MIN James Sheppard
FLA Michael Frolik

The Bruins made out as thieves in this Draft, with not one, but two steals in Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic. If you count that Phil Kessel was drafted by them as well, before being traded to Toronto, it was Boston’s Draft year.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Nicklas Backstrom	4	+3	956	243	684	927
2-	Jonathan Toews	3	+1	943	345	470	815
3-	Claude Giroux	22	+19	889	257	558	815
4-	Phil Kessel	5	+1	1066	371	490	861
5-	Brad Marchand	71	+66	751	290	356	646
6-	Jordan Staal	2	-4	961	225	312	537
7-	Bryan Little	12	+5	843	217	304	521
8-	Milan Lucic	50	+42	958	206	315	521
9-	Erik Johnson	1	-8	776	80	223	303
10-	Kyle Okposo	7	-3	800	196	310	506

2005

PIT Sidney Crosby
ANA Bobby Ryan
CAR Jack Johnson
MIN Benoit Pouliot
MTL Carey Price
CBJ Gilbert Brule
CHI Jack Skille
SJS Devin Setoguchi
OTT Brian Lee
VAN Luc Bourdon (Only played 36 games, passed away)

The Draft after the lockout, the one that saw the salary cap put in place. Everyone wanted Crosby. The Draft where the Montreal Canadiens surprised everyone by selecting Carey Price fifth overall, when they already had Jose Theodore in net. This Draft wasn’t deep and I even found myself bumping Price up on rank to number four because of it.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Sidney Crosby	1	—	984	462	801	1263
2-	Anze Kopitar	11	+9	1073	333	617	950
3-	Kristopher Letang	62	+59	808	127	410	537
4-	Carey Price	5	+1	682
5-	Paul Stastny	44	+39	945	250	476	726
6-	Keith Yandle	105	+99	976	99	474	573
7-	T.J. Oshie	24	+17	803	238	329	567
8-	Bobby Ryan	2	-6	833	254	301	555
9-	James Neal	33	+24	821	289	256	545
10-	Marc-Edouard Vlasic	35	+25	1035	72	254	326

2004

WAS Alex Ovechkin
PIT Evgeni Malkin
CHI Cam Barker
CAR Andrew Ladd
PHO Blake Wheeler
NYR Al Montoya
FLA Rostislav Olesz
CBJ Alexandre Picard
ANA Ladislav Smid
ATL Boris Valabik

No one would argue the top-2 in this Draft. Like the previous year, we would find a goaltender in the top-5 as Pekka Rinne has been know as one of the best in the world throughout his career. Passed the top-5 though, this might be one of the worst depth Draft during the period being looked at here. I did put Johan Franzen in as he still managed 600+ games before having to shut his career down.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Alex Ovechkin	1	—	1152	706	572	1278
2-	Evgeni Malkin	2	—	907	416	660	1076
3-	Blake Wheeler	5	+2	931	264	497	761
4-	David Krejci	63	+59	911	207	479	686
5-	Pekka Rinne	258	+253	659
6-	Mike Green	29	+23	880	150	351	501
7-	Alex Edler	91	+84	873	99	302	401
8-	Andrew Ladd	4	-4	950	249	289	538
9-	Travis Zajac	20	+11	991	195	337	532
10-	Johan Franzen	97	+87	602	187	183	370

2003

PIT Marc-Andre Fleury
CAR Eric Staal
FLA Nathan Horton
CBJ Nikolai Zherdev
BUF Thomas Vanek
SJS Milan Michalek
NAS Ryan Suter
ATL Brayden Coburn
CGY Dion Phaneuf
MTL Andrei Kostitsyn

What? A goalie picked first overall? I guess it’s hard to argue considering the Cups Pittsburgh ended up winning, but I have dropped him to eighth on the 2003 list. Good mix though between centres, quality defensemen and a goalie to round up the top-10 with teams having missed out on Joe Pavelski several times. It’s also safe to say that both Patrice Bergeron and Shea Weber wouldn’t have been second round picks either.

	NAME	PICKED	UP/DOWN	GP	G	A	PTS
1-	Ryan Getzlaf	19	+18	1053	274	691	965
2-	Eric Staal	2	—	1240	436	585	1021
3-	Patrice Bergeron	45	+42	1089	352	517	869
4-	Shea Weber	49	+45	990	218	352	570
5-	Brent Burns	20	+15	1113	210	218	694
6-	Ryan Suter	7	+2	1142	90	498	588
7-	Joe Pavelski	205	+198	1030	369	423	792
8-	Marc-Andre Fleury	1	-7	847
9-	Corey Perry	28	+20	1045	277	420	797
10-	Zach Parise	17	+8	1015	386	406	792

So there you have it folks. As you can see, it doesn’t matter which teams’ scouts you’re looking at, ALL passed on great players to select lesser quality guys. Why is that since they’re professional scouts, attending games all over the world? It’s because the Draft is not a perfect science. Fans tend to look at the past season, or the last couple of years of a players’ production, then compare them to their opposition at that age. If pro scouts and NHL teams did that, there would be even more mistakes being made!

You see, drafting is not so much about today, but rather trying to determine how much more will these young men continue to improve, to progress. Every single player, including franchise players, will reach the peak of their development at some point and it’s certainly not at 18 years of age, when they are selected. When GMs say that you need a bit of luck in the Draft, they are speaking the truth. Nobody knows, at the time of drafting, when these young men will reach the summum of their development. Even with the best scouting in place, teams are still rolling the dice hoping they will continue developing. Some do, some don’t. It’s been the same since day one of the NHL and will continue to be the same every single year. Many (myself included), would like the NHL to up the draft eligibility to 19 years old. While it wouldn’t eliminate mistakes, it would certainly cut some of them… but that’s a whole different topic. Stay safe folks!